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PARIS – Forecasters say a potentially “super” El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.

The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event but a crucial weakening of trade winds — capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon — has yet to materialise.

Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex and difficult to predict — making it too early to confidently forecast how powerful this El Nino could become.

Flashing red

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is about an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by July.

Sea temperatures in key El Nino zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, and an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is massing beneath the surface.

Several leading weather services are predicting Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year — exceptionally high projections.

Just three events — 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 — have breached 2C since the first major El Nino recorded in the modern era in 1877/78.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, said this El Nino could be the strongest in decades or “even be of record strength”.

“There’s definitely something coming. We’re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,” he told AFP.

Wily winds

NOAA forecasts a one-in-three chance this episode will hit 2C or above — crossing into what is dubbed “super El Nino” territory.

But key pieces of the puzzle had yet to fall into place, said Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s El Nino-Southern Oscillation lead.

El Ninos build strength as the ocean and atmosphere increasingly “couple” over the summer months, shifting air pressure, cloud patterns and winds.

This feedback loop can turn a modest El Nino into a blockbuster event, supercharging heat and triggering chaotic weather worldwide.

A hallmark of the strongest El Ninos is the weakening of trade winds that blow east to west across the equator.

But those winds are unpredictable and can strengthen unexpectedly, said L’Heureux.

“When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,” she told AFP.

“Ultimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance.”

Heat incoming

El Nino tends to peak around December but ocean heat releases slowly and can drive up global temperatures the following years.

Many record-hot years — including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 — followed major El Nino events or developed alongside them.

Climate scientists interviewed by AFP said global heat records could fall in 2026 — but 2027 was the year to watch.

There “could easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027” if an extreme El Nino takes shape this year, said Scaife.

It remains unclear whether Earth’s warming is influencing El Nino intensity. The last event in 2023/24 was weaker than episodes in 1982/83 and 1997/98, making any trend hard to pin down.

Scientists stress that stronger El Ninos raise the odds of more severe impacts — but do not guarantee them.

Yet even a weaker event now unfolds in a world transformed by climate change, with extra heat and moisture loading an already feverish atmosphere and oceans.

That means El Nino’s impacts could become more extreme even if the phenomenon itself is not growing stronger.

“The impacts of this El Nino — on things like rainfall and of course temperature — are riding on top of climate change, and could well be larger than anything we’ve seen in the past,” said Scaife.

Different world

Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns: drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted Indian monsoons, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.

But climate change has shifted the baseline so dramatically that “history is a poorer guide for seasonal predictions,” climatologist Felicity Gamble at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology told AFP.

“What happened during an El Nino event 20 years ago is probably quite different to how it might manifest these days.”

Forecasts are also complicated by climate-driven ocean warming, which makes it easier to trigger El Nino conditions and harder to distinguish La Nina, its opposite cooling phase, against a hotter backdrop, Gamble said.

The Bureau of Meteorology and NOAA have started filtering out background warming to improve forecast accuracy. Other weather agencies are adopting similar adjusted benchmarks.

Even still, Australia is predicting El Nino could reach 2.8C — potentially a history-making event. –AFP

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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States (US) opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed that Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium, Anadolu Ajansi (AA) reported.

“We don’t want tolls. It’s an international waterway. They’re not charging tolls right now,” Trump told the reporters at the White House.

Trump claimed Iran is suffering major financial losses because of restrictions on shipping activity.

Asked whether Iran could retain its stockpile of highly enriched uranium under any future arrangement, Trump answered bluntly.

“No, we get the highly enriched; we will get it. We don’t need it. We don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it,” Trump said.

Trump reiterated that the US will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon.

“Right now, we’re negotiating and we’ll see, but we’re going to get it one way or the other. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Trump said the US is monitoring reported negotiations between Iran and Oman over possible tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, while asserting that US forces maintain complete control over maritime traffic in the strategic waterway.

Asked whether it would be acceptable for Iran to negotiate with Oman on formalising toll charges for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: “Well, we’re looking at it; we hear about it.”

Trump went on to claim that the US has enforced an effective blockade in the region.

“We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz, as you know, with our blockade.

“The blockade has been 100 per cent effective. Nobody’s been able to get through. It’s like a steel wall,” Trump said.

Regional tensions have escalated since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb 28.

Tehran retaliated with strikes targeting Israel as well as US allies in the Gulf, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

A ceasefire took effect on April 8 through Pakistani mediation, but talks in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting agreement.

Trump later extended the truce indefinitely while maintaining a blockade on vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. — BERNAMA-ANADOLU

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OIL rose after three days of declines, as statements by Iran on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz pared earlier optimism over progress in the negotiations with the US. 

Brent climbed toward $105 a barrel, but is still down more than 4% this week. West Texas Intermediate was near $98. Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough. 

The conflicting statements on key issues left it unclear if the two sides were any closer to a deal after renewed threats of escalation in recent days, buffeting oil prices as traders try to gauge when energy flows through the strait will fully resume. The war and the curtailment in supplies has seen global stockpiles of crude oil and products being drawn down at a record pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The constant back-and-forth in headlines is clearly reducing risk-taking across both paper and physical markets,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Dip buyers remain reluctant to step in front of potential returning flows through the Strait, while physical players continue to de-stock and wait rather than chase expensive cargoes.”

The International Energy Agency remains ready to free further stockpiles if needed, after a first release in March, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Thursday. –BLOOMBERG

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