
by IFAST RESEARCH TEAM
VIETNAM has risen above early concerns that the country would come under significant pressure from US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy, despite its strong trade ties with the US (accounting for approximately 30% of total exports in 2024).
Vietnam’s stock market, as represented by the VN-Index, surged by more than 40% in 2025 (in local currency terms), driven by strong domestic participation, easing trade tensions, optimism surrounding a potential FTSE Russell Emerging Market reclassification, the introduction of the new securities trading and post-trade system (KRX) and ongoing government reforms. Meanwhile, the MSCI Vietnam Index gained +69% in 2025.
Interestingly, foreign investors remained net sellers on a year-to-date (YTD) basis with retail investors accounting for over 90% of total transaction value. Looking ahead, while much of the positive news flow appears to be priced in, foreign exchange (forex) normalisation could support a return of foreign participation.
Stars Aligning Despite Challenges
We expect Vietnam’s exports to grow by 8% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026, while imports are projected to increase by 7.5% YoY, leading to a continued expansion in the trade balance. Overall, we anticipate GDP growth to moderate to 7% YoY in 2026, below the government’s ambitious target of 10%, with domestic consumption and government spending remaining the key drivers of economic activity.
Inflation is expected to remain contained at 3.5% in 2026, representing a slight YoY increase but still below the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) target ceiling of 4%.
This outlook is supported by the World Bank’s projection of a 7% decline in global commodity prices in 2026, as well as expectations of limited scope for further depreciation of the Vietnamese dong.
From a monetary policy perspective, we expect the SBV to maintain interest rates at a moderate level (currently 4.5%) throughout 2026 to support economic growth, with a lower likelihood of rate cuts given the need to limit further depreciation pressures on the Vietnamese dong.
1) Continued strength in domestic consumption
We forecast Vietnam’s credit growth in 2026 to be around 18%-20%, broadly in line with 2025, supported by an accommodative monetary environment and strong credit demand from the corporate sector. Notably, corporate borrowing is expected to continue shifting from funding working capital towards financing business expansion.
We also see further room for growth in retail sales in 2026. For the first eleven months of 2025 (11M25), retail sales expanded by 9.1% YoY, still below the pre-pandemic growth range of 11%-12% YoY.
Improving macroeconomic conditions and a stronger labour market should continue to underpin retail sales growth. In addition, the 2% Value Added Tax (VAT) reduction on a broad range of goods and services, effective from July 1, 2025, is expected to help sustain consumer spending into 2026.
Tourist arrivals could provide another important catalyst. Vietnam’s tourism sector has been booming, reaching a milestone of 20 million international arrivals in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
This performance has been supported by favourable visa policies, promotional programmes and large-scale events that have attracted a substantial number of international visitors. Chinese tourists have been a key driver of this recovery, while domestic tourism continues to serve as a strong foundation. We expect this momentum to carry through into 2026.
2) Government booster pack: Spending and reforms
The economic playbook for 2026 remains largely in the government’s hands.
Infrastructure Spending: Vietnamese government infrastructure spending in 2025 came in above expectations, at approximately US$34 billion (RM137.7 billion), compared to the original budget estimate of US$31 billion. For 2026, the government has allocated around 1,100 trillion dong (RM170.1 billion) to public investment, the highest level on record.
This is expected to lift public investment to nearly 9% of GDP, surpassing the previous peak reached in 2012. This level is comparable to China’s infrastructure investment during its major development phase between 2000 and 2015 and is expected to remain the highest among ASEAN economies in 2026.
Governance reforms: A series of reforms were introduced in 2025, including streamlining provincial-level administration to 34 provinces and centrally governed cities, down from 63. It is also reducing commune-level administrative units to around 2,000, from more than 10,000 as well as cutting the number of ministries and ministerial-level agencies to 17 from 22.
While structural reforms are supportive, the market impact will depend on execution quality and the speed at which administrative changes translate into project approvals and capital deployment.
3) FDI: Execution remains the key variable
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains another key pillar of Vietnam’s economic strength. Registered FDI reached US$31.52 billion in 10M25, up 15.6% YoY, while realised capital rose to US$23.6 billion by November, representing an 8.9% increase and the fastest pace of disbursement growth in five years.
The full implementation of the Land Law in 2025 has materially reduced land clearance and valuation issues, enabling investors to move from approval to construction at an unprecedented pace.
- The views expressed are of the research team and do not necessarily reflect the stand of the newspaper’s owners and editorial board.
- This article first appeared in The Malaysian Reserve weekly print edition
The post Vietnam outlook 2026: Stars are aligning, execution is key appeared first on The Malaysian Reserve.









