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MALAYSIAN Government Securities (MGS) yields are expected to remain broadly stable or edge lower, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals and favourable demand-supply dynamics, according to Kenanga Research.
The research house said the outlook remains intact despite a more hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve, which could trigger intermittent volatility across global bond markets.
Foreign investors returned to Malaysia’s government bond market last week, recording net inflows of RM3.7 billion, including RM3 billion on June 12 alone. In contrast, the local equity market registered a fifth consecutive week of foreign net selling.
“Attention now turns to Malaysia’s export and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which are expected to indicate resilient external demand and stable inflation conditions. Easing geopolitical tensions and continued demand for duration should remain supportive of local bond market sentiment,” it said.
On yield movements, Kenanga noted that MGS and Government Investment Issue (GII) yields were mostly lower during the week, declining between 3.2 basis points (bps) and 0.6 bps. The benchmark 10-year MGS yield fell 1.2 bps to 3.596%, while the 10-year GII yield declined 3.2 bps to 3.601%.
The research house said local government bond yields were mixed but generally trended lower, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and sustained investor demand for longer-duration assets.
“The US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to lower oil prices, helping to ease inflation concerns and improve overall risk sentiment,” it said.
Domestically, stronger-than-expected industrial production index (IPI) growth of 8.2% year-on-year in April, coupled with robust demand at the reopening auction of the 15-year GII, reinforced confidence in Malaysia’s economic outlook. The auction recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.41 times.
“While the Federal Open Market Committee’s hawkish pivot and the Bank of Japan’s policy tightening exerted some upward pressure on yields through global rate channels, these effects were largely offset by favourable domestic demand conditions,” it added. — TMR
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