GDP

MALAYSIA’S economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) is expected to come in slightly below the Department of Statistics Malaysia’s (DOSM) advance estimate of 4.5%, at around 4.3%, according to BIMB Securities Research.

In its gross domestic product (GDP) preview, BIMB said the moderation reflects softer private consumption and slower export growth amid persistent global headwinds.

Retail sales growth eased to 5% year-on-year – the weakest in six quarters – while export growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.4% in the previous quarter.

Manufacturing output growth softened to 3.9% from 4.2%, with the sector’s PMI staying below the 50-point mark at 48.9 in 2Q.

Exports to China contracted by 4.4%, while growth to the US decelerated to 20.2% from 36.4% in 1Q.

BIMB said investment momentum remained solid but is likely to moderate given global uncertainties, including potential US tariffs of up to 100% on semiconductor imports and varying levies on other major economies.

Despite external risks, domestic demand is expected to provide some buffer, supported by government measures such as a one-off RM100 cash transfer to all Malaysian adults at end-August and the 25-basis-point cut in the overnight policy rate in July.

“While external uncertainties may weigh on the export-oriented sectors, domestic policy measures are expected to help sustain Malaysia’s near-term growth momentum,” the research house said. — TMR