TOP US and European diplomats are gathering in Antalya, Turkey on Thursday as the outlook dims for any major breakthrough in expected peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Momentum had been building for a possible meeting between Ukrainian and Russian leaders late this week, in what would be a first direct diplomatic encounter since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin announced late Wednesday he would be sending only a delegation of low-level representatives led by his aide Vladimir Medinsky to talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, raising doubts about the prospects for any concrete steps toward ending the war in this week’s meetings.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to join US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg in Istanbul on Friday after meetings in Antalya, a short flight away. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said before Putin’s statement that he would decide which steps to take once Moscow announces who will be attending.
It’s also still unclear whether officials from the US, Ukraine and Russia will all meet directly or whether discussions will be staggered as they have been previously.
The uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine negotiations is casting a shadow over the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in the Turkish resort city that kicked off Wednesday evening. The meetings in Antalya between Rubio and European foreign ministers will offer a chance to align over Ukraine after European leaders issued an ultimatum last weekend, giving Russia until May 12 to agree to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine.
The European leaders had said they had US backing for coordinated sanctions on Russia if Moscow kept up strikes on Ukraine. But US President Donald Trump didn’t publicly back the proposed ceasefire date, and the deadline came and went without either side stopping the fighting.
“It is clear that Russia is sending only a lower level delegation to Turkiye to these peace talks,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters before the start of the second day of meetings in Antalya. “I’m still cautiously optimistic that if also the Russians are willing to play ball that you could get to some breakthroughs over the next couple of weeks.”
In conversations between US and European officials earlier this week, previously reported by Bloomberg, the American side was unclear on whether it was still ready to impose sanctions on Russia if attacks continued, or what it would do if Putin refused to meet with Zelenskiy and to halt the fighting.
European leaders were expected to urge Trump to follow through with his threat to sanction Moscow if Putin declines the meeting with Zelenskiy or Russia doesn’t agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire this week, Bloomberg reported.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio and US Senator Lindsey Graham on Wednesday in Antalya to discuss peace efforts and further steps. “It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine’s constructive steps,” Sybiha posted to X. “So far, it has not.”
Graham, a Trump ally, said earlier this month that he has bipartisan support for a bill that would enact “bone-crushing” new sanctions on Russia including a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium.
With Putin now unlikely to attend the talks himself, it’s unclear to what extent the Europeans and the US will follow through with additional sanctions on Moscow. The European Union on Wednesday agreed on a 17th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers and individuals and entities that help Moscow evade energy restrictions, but the measures are seen as largely incremental.
‘Signaling Contempt’
Trump has urged both sides to meet for talks and vented increased frustration with Moscow over its foot-dragging in the negotiations, including threatening to levy new sanctions. Putin has continued to press maximalist demands, including demanding a stop to all western military aid to Ukraine.
In his decree issued late Wednesday in Moscow, Putin appointed Medinsky to lead the delegation that also includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, and Igor Kostyukov, head of military intelligence. A group of four other officials were named as “experts.”
Medinsky led Russia’s negotiators at meetings in Istanbul soon after the start of the February 2022 war. Those talks broke down amid recriminations over a draft protocol of Russian demands that Putin later asserted had been largely accepted by Ukraine. The government in Kyiv has rejected this claim.
Putin’s decision to appoint Medinsky to head the delegation is “signaling contempt for Washington,” Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrey Kozyrev posted to X on Wednesday. “He did it knowing that the U.S. President offered to meet Putin there.”
In an effort to prove to Trump that Putin’s intransigence is the obstacle to any negotiations, Zelenskiy had said he would be ready to fly to Istanbul to meet with the Russian leader after a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Thursday.
“It is now more evident than ever to everyone in the world since the beginning of the full-scale war – it is evident that the sole remaining obstacle to peace is Russia’s lack of clear will to do it,” Zelenskiy said. –BLOOMBERG
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