Domestic public opinion shapes the credibility of alignment commitments amid US-China strategic competition
INCHEON, South Korea, May 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Researchers at Incheon National University explored how domestic public opinion influences foreign policy alignment decisions among U.S. allies during great power competition. Using a survey experiment centered on South Korea’s potential Quad membership, they found that leaders face audience costs when reversing alignment commitments, particularly from pro-U.S. constituents. The study highlights how shifting public preferences can strengthen or weaken alignment credibility in international politics.
In an era marked by rising strategic rivalry between the United States and China, allied democracies face increasingly complex foreign policy decisions. While many of these nations depend on U.S. military protection, they also rely heavily on China for economic growth—making alignment decisions a matter not only of international strategy, but also domestic political pressure.
To explore this tension, a team of researchers from Incheon National University, led by Assistant Professor Kyung Suk Lee, conducted a comprehensive study on how audience costs—political consequences for leaders who reverse public commitments—shape foreign policy choices. The study was published in the journal Contemporary Security Policy on March 20, 2025.
“Our research offers groundbreaking insights into how audience costs significantly affect US allies’ foreign policy decisions amid US-China strategic competition, explaining both their initial hesitation to make clear alignment choices (strategic hedging) and the credibility of their commitments once made,” explains Dr. Lee, the lead author of the study.
The researchers used a national survey experiment focused on South Korea’s debate over joining the Quad, a U.S.-led strategic group. Their approach assessed how the public responds to leaders’ foreign policy reversals, revealing that leaders face substantial domestic backlash when they renege on prior alignment decisions—especially among citizens with strong pro-U.S. views.
The study found that over 90% of respondents viewed the alliance with the United States as vital to South Korea’s national security, economy, and global standing. This public sentiment increases the political cost of foreign policy inconsistency and discourages leaders from shifting course once alignment decisions are declared.
“This suggests that prevailing pro-US sentiment among US allies enhances the credibility of their alignment commitments,” said Dr. Lee. “Though shifting domestic preferences toward China could potentially incentivize them to reverse these commitments.”
Importantly, the study highlights how these audience costs are not uniform. Citizens who lean toward China tend to tolerate—or even reward—alignment reversals, whereas those aligned with the U.S. strongly oppose them. This variation creates a complex domestic landscape in which leaders must carefully gauge public sentiment before committing to a side.
“U.S. strategists competing with China for influence might recognize that focusing on public opinion in allied nations is vital,” Dr. Lee notes.
As power dynamics evolve in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, the study points to a critical insight: in democratic allies, foreign policy alignment is ultimately shaped not just by strategic logic—but by the will of the people.
Reference
Authors: Kyung Suk Lee1, Hankyeul Yang2, and Daekwon Son3
Title of original paper: US allies’ foreign policy alignment in an era of great power competition: An analysis of domestic politics
Journal: Contemporary Security Policy
DOI:10.1080/13523260.2025.2474872
About Incheon National University
Website: http://www.inu.ac.kr/mbshome/mbs/inuengl/index.html
Contact:
Hanna Kim
82-32-835-9325
[email protected]
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SOURCE Incheon National University
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